DOI: 10.12688/openresafrica.16748.1 ISSN: 2752-6925

Market Responses to Urban Food Inflation in Puntland, Somalia: Asymmetric Price Transmission, Supply Chain Reconfiguration, and Retail Coping Mechanisms During the 2026 Middle East Supply Shock

Yahye Abdalle Jama, Abdihakim Hussien Osman, Ismail Mohamoud Yusuf, Ahmed Farah Darod
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Background Fragile urban food systems in economies reliant on imports are exceedingly susceptible to simultaneous geopolitical and infrastructure disruptions. From February to April 2026, Puntland, Somalia, had significant market disruption due to maritime instability in the Middle East coinciding with the conflict-induced closure of the Berbera–Las’anod commerce route. This reconfiguration compelled nearly 95% of regional petroleum inflows to transit through Bosaso Port, resulting in concentrated logistical reliance and exacerbating downstream price transmission. Methods A cross-sectional market-systems analysis was executed using primary quantitative data from 80 stratified market participants: importers ( n = 15 ) , wholesalers ( n = 25 ) , and retailers ( n = 40 ) spanning Bosaso, Garowe, Qardho, and Dhahar. Structured survey responses were combined with weekly empirical price-monitoring data for primary fuel and staple food items. Analytical methods encompassed descriptive statistics, binary logistic regression, and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) modelling to assess predictors of inventory depletion and factors influencing consumer purchasing power. Results Petrol prices escalated by 170.6%–187.5%, and diesel prices soared by 50.8%–61.8%. Inland districts exhibited significantly elevated food inflation compared to Bosaso, corroborating a pronounced spatial distance-decay impact. Regression analysis indicated that procurement price escalation ( β = − 0.045 , p < 0.001 ) and stock shortages ( β = − 0.684 , p = 0.002 ) are significant negative predictors of consumer purchasing capacity ( R ^ 2 = 0.4813 ) . Logistic analysis indicated that downstream retailers were more prone to shortages than importers ( AOR = 2.45 , 95 % CI : 1.24 − 5.12 , p < 0.01 ) , illustrating a geographical bullwhip impact. Coping techniques differed: upstream corporations decreased procurement volumes, whilst retailers utilized brand substitution, small-unit retail division, and informal credit expansion. The extension of credit resulted in a 114% rise in outstanding receivables, thereby subjecting merchants to significant liquidity risk. Conclusion Urban food insecurity in Puntland was influenced by the interplay of external energy disruptions, concentrated trade routes, and infrastructural disparities. Long-term resilience necessitates varied transportation networks, decentralized fuel reserves, merchant liquidity assistance, and adaptive mobile-money social protection systems.

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