Mapping the hypothetical: A combined approach to lead prioritisation in cold case reviews of no-body homicides

Investigations into major crimes and cold cases are often faced with an abundance of potential leads. What is required is a systematic method for organising, prioritising, and evaluating them. Although developing timelines and investigative leads is a familiar skill among investigators, the challenge lies in managing and prioritising these leads explicitly and effectively. This article outlines a novel combined approach that merges temporal analyses and the analysis of competing hypotheses to offer a synthesised effective means of explicitly stating, structuring, and organising leads in criminal cases. The approach is designed to map investigative pathways, reduce resource load, and provide a structured process for lead prioritisation. A real-world inspired case is used to exemplify the process which outlines how case strategies may be improved through hypothesis evaluation, supporting resource allocation, and assisting the prioritisation of leads.