Mapping the architecture of innovation capacity in MENA: a systemic fuzzy DANP analysis of interdependent drivers and causal pathways
Mouna AbdelhamidPurpose
This study aims to model the complex causal architecture and network interdependencies of national innovation capacity in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, moving beyond linear composite indices to identify key leverage points and systemic dynamics.
Design/methodology/approach
Using a Fuzzy Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory-based Analytic Network Process (Fuzzy DANP) methodology, the authors analyze 25 indicators across five dimensions: human capital, institutional framework, knowledge creation, green innovation and market sophistication. As a proof of concept, they use a literature-informed influence matrix and a synthetic data set, constructed from realistic parameter ranges for 20 MENA economies, to enable the analysis of causal weights, net effects and influence networks. The model’s structural logic is benchmarked against the Global Innovation Index (GII).
Findings
The results illustratively reveal green innovation as the most influential dimension, followed by institutional framework and human capital. The analysis identifies regulatory quality, R&D expenditure and environmental taxes as pivotal net-cause variables. The causal mapping shows institutional framework and human capital as foundational drivers, while the network analysis visualizes a strong institutional-knowledge core and positions green innovation as a systemic integrator.
Research limitations/implications
While the use of a literature-informed influence matrix and synthetic data establishes a proof-of-concept, future research should populate the model with empirical data and formal expert judgments (e.g. Delphi panels) for country-specific diagnostics.
Practical implications
The findings provide clear, stakeholder-specific guidance. Policymakers should prioritize strengthening foundational institutions and mission-oriented green innovation policies. Industry and academia must collaborate to transform human capital into an innovation conduit. The results further highlight a strategic opportunity for Islamic finance to fund green and technology ventures through instruments like Mudarabah and green sukuk.
Social implications
This study underscores that targeted, systemic innovation policy is critical for addressing the MENA region’s core challenges of sustainable diversification, youth employment and climate vulnerability.
Originality/value
This study makes a novel methodological and conceptual contribution by applying fuzzy DANP to map the MENA innovation system as a complex adaptive network in a synthetic/illustrative framework. The study further integrates region-specific institutional and financial characteristics, including Islamic finance mechanisms, conceptually into the systemic analysis of innovation capacity.