Mapping Space Weather Induced PPP‐AR Uncertainty to UAV Power‐Line Inspection Safety Risk

Abstract

Space weather can affect the reliability of satellite‐based positioning and thereby disrupt industrial operations that increasingly depend on Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) services. This concern is becoming more relevant with the rapid growth of the low‐altitude economy, where unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are increasingly used for close‐proximity inspection of power lines and other critical infrastructure. In such operations, degraded positioning is not only an accuracy issue but may directly reduce the safety margin between a UAV and surrounding structures. This study investigates how low‐latitude ionospheric scintillation propagates from GNSS signal disturbance to operational risk. Using real‐time BeiDou precise point positioning with ambiguity resolution (PPP‐AR) over Hong Kong and a parameterized simulation of UAV power‐line inspection, we quantify scintillation‐induced positioning degradation and map the resulting three‐dimensional uncertainty to the simulated inspection geometry. During the disturbed interval, increased satellite rejection and weakened ambiguity‐fixed constraints led to a temporary PPP‐AR outage and fallback to single point positioning. The 99.9% positioning‐error ellipsoid expanded from sub‐meter to several‐meter scales, substantially increasing the safety‐margin intrusion indicator for stand‐off distances relevant to close‐proximity inspection, whereas the quiet reference remained near zero. These results establish an error‐to‐risk pathway from ionospheric scintillation to PPP‐AR service degradation and further to low‐altitude operational safety, highlighting the need to consider space‐weather conditions when planning GNSS‐dependent UAV operations near critical infrastructure.