Managing the Unknown: Integrated Risk Prioritization for Startup Internationalization in Global Markets

This study proposes an integrated framework to identify, analyze, and prioritize the risks associated with startup internationalization under conditions of global uncertainty. A PRISMA-based systematic review of 44 studies and structured expert judgment from 11 startup ecosystem professionals were employed. The study was conducted within the Iranian business context, focusing on technology-driven startups seeking international expansion in emerging markets characterized by institutional volatility and geopolitical uncertainty. The methodological design integrates the Fuzzy Delphi method, DEMATEL, and Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA). From an initial pool of 33 risk factors spanning political, institutional, economic, technological, and organizational dimensions, 16 risks were confirmed by expert consensus. DEMATEL results indicate that geopolitical conflicts, political and institutional instability, and legal and tax complexity function as primary causal risks that propagate toward market, operational, and strategic risks. FMEA subsequently prioritizes failure modes by Risk Priority Number, identifying market knowledge deficiency (RPN = 336), competitive pressure (RPN = 320), and strategic alliance failure (RPN = 294) as the highest-priority intervention points. The framework offers a structured tool for decision-makers to evaluate and manage internationalization risks, with implications for theory, managerial practice, and policy.