Machine Learning-Based Compressive Strength Prediction, Sensitive Analysis, and Microstructural Mechanism Study of Carbonated Recycled Aggregate Concrete

Carbonation treatment can effectively address defects in recycled aggregates (RA) while achieving CO2 sequestration, thereby improving properties of recycled aggregate concrete (RAC). However, the compressive strength of carbonated recycled aggregate concrete (CRAC) is governed by complex interactions among multiple parameters, and existing machine learning (ML) studies often rely on heterogeneous literature data with limited parameter coverage, resulting in constrained predictive accuracy. To address this issue, this study established a robust ML framework for precise strength prediction. By integrating published literature with original experimental results, a dataset of 226 groups was constructed, incorporating 12 key parameters across RA properties, carbonation processes, mix proportions, and concrete age to systematically compare three ML models (GPR, SVM, EDT). To enhance model transparency, global sensitivity analysis used the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method, while X-ray diffraction (XRD), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), and microhardness tests were employed to reveal reinforcement mechanisms at the phase, microstructural, and micromechanical levels, supporting the connection between intelligent prediction and mechanistic explanation. Results show that the GPR model exhibited the highest predictive performance and generalization capability (R2 = 0.98 for training, R2 = 0.94 for testing; RMSE = 1.08 MPa), outperforming comparative models in handling high-dimensional nonlinear relationships. SHAP analysis identified concrete age, water–cement (W/C) ratio, and the initial crush index of the RA as the primary factors, while carbonation process parameters, particularly relative humidity, carbonation pressure, and carbonation time, exerted significant regulatory effects on strength. XRD results qualitatively confirmed the formation of CaCO3 after carbonation, while SEM and microhardness analyses indicated that carbonation products contributed to pore filling and interfacial transition zone (ITZ) strengthening, providing a physical basis for both macroscopic performance improvement and model reliability. This study provides a scientific, data-driven solution for the mix design optimization and performance prediction of CRAC, delivering substantial environmental and economic benefits.