Low‐Carbon Transition in China's Agrifood System: Potential, Pathways and Global Implications

ABSTRACT

Global agrifood systems must undergo a low‐carbon transition to achieve Paris Agreement temperature goals. Accounting for 13% of global agrifood systems emissions, China has a critical role to play; yet without further action, China's agrifood emissions will continue to rise, jeopardising its carbon neutrality commitment. This study employs a mixed‐methods approach combining a narrative literature review and integrated modelling to: (1) characterise the emissions of China's agrifood system, (2) project carbon emission reduction and carbon sequestration potential under multiple domestic policy scenarios, and (3) provide wider implications for developing countries. Under the baseline scenario, holding current trends and policies constant, annual emissions are projected to rise slowly from a baseline of 1.6 billion tons in 2021 to 1.83 billion tons of CO ₂ eq by 2060, driven primarily by the expansion of the livestock sector and growing energy use. However, our modelling results suggest that a combination of measures, including productivity improvements, the adoption of low‐carbon technologies, food loss and waste reduction, production structure adjustment, and a low‐carbon energy transition, could reduce emissions by over 60% or 1.1 billion tons CO ₂ eq by 2060 relative to the baseline. At the same time, carbon sequestration alone could ensure carbon neutrality, with potential reductions of 1.8 billion tons CO ₂ eq annually, thereby contributing to the national carbon neutrality goal. These results underscore that synergistic, system‐wide interventions substantially outperform isolated measures. China's experience offers a valuable reference for other countries in formulating sustainable agricultural policies and pursuing low‐carbon transitions.