Lost Gatherers in the 21st Century: Probability of Area, Spatial Behavior, Risk Factors and Vulnerability

ABSTRACT

Gathering activities have evolved from survival‐driven practices to predominantly recreational and cultural pursuits, weakening the connection with nature and potentially reducing navigational skills, which may help explain why gathering accounts for 8% of the search operations in Catalonia (Spain). A key focus of this study was the comparison of three classical probability of area (POA) models for locating missing gatherers—the rings, watershed, and walking time cost models—as well as combinations of the watershed model with the other two. The study also provides an overview of gatherers' spatial behavior, risk factors, and vulnerability. The dataset included 248 search operations involving 300 gatherers, occurring between 2010 and 2022 in Catalonia (Spain). Methods included descriptive and regression tree analyses on distance traveled, ordinal regression on health outcomes, and comparative evaluation of POA models using the MapScore framework, complemented by connectivity and high‐probability area analyses. Results indicate that elapsed time strongly influences both distance traveled and health outcomes, while meteorology and spatial features also contribute. Overall, POA models substantially improved search effectiveness compared with random search, and differences between models are discussed.