Long‐term market value after meniscal injury in professional football players largely follows expected career trajectories: A matched cohort study
Riccardo D'Ambrosi, Jacopo Conteduca, Andrea Mei, Marco Sorrentino, Claudio Cordani, Christian Fink, Philipp BaumertAbstract
Purpose
To evaluate long‐term changes in market value following meniscal injury in professional football players compared with matched players without meniscal injury and identify characteristics associated with postinjury market value.
Methods
This retrospective cohort study analysed 80 meniscal injury episodes (74 players) recorded in Transfermarkt between 2006 and 2024. Market value was assessed during the preinjury season, injury year and annually for five subsequent years. Linear mixed‐effects models evaluated longitudinal changes and associations with age, playing position and competitive level. Injury episodes identifiable in an openly available Transfermarkt‐derived database were matched (1:2) to controls without recorded meniscal injury by position, competitive level, calendar year, age and preinjury market value. Covariate balance was assessed using standardised mean differences (SMDs), and trajectories were compared between groups.
Results
Mean age at injury was 25.05 ± 4.36 years, and mean absence was 103.87 ± 93.48 days. Market value increased at one (+25.61%; p = 0.023) and 2 years (+26.82%; p = 0.019) compared with preinjury values, before declining by 31.56% at 5 years ( p = 0.001). Older age and lower competitive level were independently associated with lower market value. Among 64 matched injury episodes and 128 controls (all SMDs <0.15), market value declined in both groups over 5 years (−44.8% vs. −34.5%), without significant between‐group differences at any time point (5‐year difference, −15.7%; 95% CI, −39.2% to +16.8%; p = 0.30). Sensitivity analyses showed no significant additional decline among injured players.
Conclusion
Meniscal injuries were not associated with an immediate reduction in market value among professional football players. The long‐term decline in market value did not differ significantly from that of matched players without meniscal injury and appeared largely to reflect the expected age‐related evolution of player value; however, given the width of the confidence intervals and the absence of clinical detail, a moderate injury‐related effect cannot be excluded.
Level of Evidence
Level III, retrospective cohort study.