Longitudinal trends and future projections of incidence and mortality for cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma in China: Joinpoint, age–period–cohort, and ARIMA forecasting using 2019 GBD data
Siomui Chong, Santosh Chokkakula, Yu-Yen Yang, Liying Huang, Xiaoxi Zhang, Huiwei Wang, Shucan Guo, YueLin Hu, Shuheng Li, Changxu Han, Jun Lyu, Zhenying ZhangObjectives:
Cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC) is an increasingly prevalent malignancy worldwide. Despite its growing impact, cSCC remains underreported in China, and local epidemiological data are limited. This study aims to evaluate the burden of cSCC in China from 1990 to 2019, investigate temporal trends, and forecast incidence and mortality rates through 2025.
Methods:
We used data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study to analyze cSCC trends in China. Joinpoint regression and age–period–cohort (APC) models were employed to assess changes in incidence and mortality over time. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) time-series model was applied to predict future trends from 2020 to 2025.
Results:
From 1990 to 2019, cSCC incidence and mortality in China showed a marked increase, especially among males. The age-standardized incidence rate rose with an average annual percentage change (AAPC) of 3.4% (95% CI: 3.19–3.61%), while mortality increased more gradually (AAPC: 0.75%; 95% CI: 0.45–1.04%). APC analysis revealed the highest relative risks for incidence in the 90–94 age group and for mortality in the 75–79 age group. ARIMA forecasts indicate continued growth in incidence through 2025, with mortality rates expected to stabilize or slightly decline.
Conclusion:
cSCC poses an increasing public health burden in China. The projected rise in incidence highlights the need for improved surveillance, early detection, and preventive strategies, particularly targeting high-risk populations.