Long-Term Urban Thermal Dynamics and Land Use Transformation in Košice, Slovakia: A Landsat Time Series Analysis (1985–2025)

This paper focuses on the analysis of long-term land surface temperature (LST) dynamics and land-use changes in the city of Košice, Slovakia, during the period 1985–2025. The analysis is based on multi-temporal Landsat satellite imagery processed within a geographic information system (GIS) environment. Non-parametric statistical methods, including the Mann–Kendall trend test and the Theil–Sen slope estimator, were applied at the pixel level to identify the direction, magnitude, and statistical significance of long-term trends. Land-use changes were evaluated using CORINE Land Cover data together with the NDVI and NDBI spectral indices. The results revealed a statistically significant increase in land surface temperature across almost the entire urban area, with the mean LST increasing by 5.83 °C between 1985 and 2025. The analysis also confirmed a strong positive correlation between built-up areas and LST values, whereas vegetation cover exhibited a significant cooling effect represented by a strong negative correlation with surface temperature. Spatial analysis identified pronounced warming hotspots concentrated mainly in industrial and newly urbanized areas, while vegetation-stabilized zones showed lower warming intensity or localized cooling trends. The findings highlight the dominant influence of urbanization processes on the city’s thermal regime and emphasize the importance of urban vegetation as a key adaptation element for mitigating the surface urban heat island effect. The study also illustrates the added value of integrating remote sensing data, GIS tools, and pixel-based trend analysis in the assessment of long-term changes in the urban thermal environment of medium-sized Central European cities. The results provide a spatial basis for climate adaptation planning and future assessments of urban thermal comfort and environmental quality.