Long-Term Spatiotemporal Assessment of Heat Stress Risk in Major Dairy-Producing Regions of Minas Gerais Using ERA5-Land Reanalysis Data

Heat stress poses a challenge to dairy production under increasing climate variability, highlighting the need for long-term assessments of thermal risk. This study assessed heat stress risk across major dairy-producing regions of Minas Gerais, Brazil, using ERA5-Land reanalysis data and the Temperature–Humidity Index (THI). Daily air temperature and dew point temperature data from 2004 to 2024 were used to calculate THI. ERA5-Land-derived THI was validated against observations from 63 INMET automatic weather stations using the modified Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE′). At the regional scale, heat stress risk was characterized based on the frequency, spatial distribution, seasonality, and temporal trends of THI-defined climatic heat-stress categories. Temporal trends were assessed using Pearson’s correlation between year and annual frequency for each THI category, with significance evaluated using a t-test at the 5% significance level. KGE′ values were predominantly between 0.80 and 0.90, indicating high agreement between observed and ERA5-Land-derived data. Heat stress conditions (THI ≥ 68) accounted for 69.72% of the observations, with the highest seasonal frequencies occurring in summer (24.23%) and spring (22.25%). Temporal analysis indicated an average increase of 2.23 days year−1 in heat-stress conditions, mainly due to moderate heat stress, while thermoneutral days showed predominantly decreasing trends. These findings demonstrate that integrating climate reanalysis data with bioclimatic indicators provides a robust framework for assessing heat stress risk and supporting regional planning of livestock facilities, cooling strategies, and climate change adaptation.