Long-Term Changes in Shelterbelt Stability Along the Taklimakan Desert Highway Revealed by Landsat Observations

The Taklimakan Desert Highway shelterbelt is the world’s largest ecological protection system established along a highway in a shifting desert environment and plays a critical role in mitigating wind-blown sand hazards and ensuring transportation safety. However, its long-term stability and protective capacity after more than two decades of operation remain insufficiently understood. In this study, Landsat imagery from 2005 to 2025 was used to monitor the long-term evolution of the shelterbelt along the Middle Section (~180 km) of the Taklimakan Desert Highway. A Random Forest classifier was employed to extract shelterbelt distribution, and classification results were validated using high-resolution Google Earth imagery and unmanned aerial vehicle observations. To quantify shelterbelt condition, a Shelterbelt Stability Index (SSI) was developed by integrating fractional vegetation cover (FVC), connectivity index (CI), percentage of landscape (PLAND), and perimeter-area fractal dimension (FRAC). The shelterbelt experienced initial seedling decline from 2005 to 2011, followed by progressive restoration during 2011–2020 and finally entered a stable saturated stage after 2020. Affected by saline water drip irrigation, wind-sand erosion and pipeline clogging, the overall vegetation condition deteriorated continuously before 2011. After targeted irrigation regulation, optimization of planting patterns and replanting measures were implemented; the degradation trend was reversed, contributing to the sustained improvement of vegetation thereafter. Significant spatial heterogeneity was observed along the highway, with certain sections maintaining high continuity and vegetation coverage, while others exhibited fragmentation, local discontinuities, area shrinkage, and increasing structural complexity. The proposed SSI effectively captured long-term structural dynamics and identified vulnerable sections subject to degradation. This study provides new insights into the life-cycle evolution of desert highway shelterbelts and offers scientific support for the sustainable management of ecological protection systems in arid environments.