Livestock Pressure, Soil Organic Carbon, and Herder Income in Mongolian Rangelands: Dual-Scale Empirical and Scenario-Based Evidence

Mongolian rangelands face interacting ecological and livelihood pressures, including livestock pressure, vegetation change, soil-carbon dynamics, household income variability, and inefficiencies in livestock by-product recovery. This paper examines whether observed administrative and household data, field-observed pilot-area audit evidence, satellite-derived/backcast vegetation indicators, model-reconstructed ecological trajectories, econometric associations, machine-learning diagnostics, Monte Carlo uncertainty outputs, and scenario-based carbon-finance calculations are consistent with a study-specific ecological–economic feedback framework in Mongolian pastoral rangelands. The analysis combines observed livestock and household data, satellite-derived vegetation indicators, field-anchored soil organic carbon (SOC) information, climate controls, and pilot-area by-product audit evidence in a dual-scale framework comprising nine pasture-user groups in Öndörshireet Soum, Töv Aimag, and a national soum-level panel for 2002–2024. SOC, above-ground biomass (AGB), and below-ground biomass (BGB) trajectories are treated as model-reconstructed series rather than independently observed annual field measurements. Fixed-effects panel models are used to estimate conditional associations, while machine-learning models assess predictive consistency within reconstructed data structures. Under the fitted full specification, the best-performing national-panel model reports an out-of-sample R2 of 0.942 for model-reconstructed SOC; this value is interpreted as high internal predictive consistency within the reconstructed SOC panel, not as independent validation of observed annual SOC change. Because the SU/SOC ratio mechanically contains SOC, the full-specification predictive results are subject to leakage risk, and leakage-free validation is needed for a more conservative assessment of predictive performance. Panel estimates suggest that vegetation condition is positively associated with ln(household income), while the by-product waste ratio is negatively associated with ln(income), conditional on fixed effects and model specification. Scenario-based carbon-finance outputs, framed with reference to Verra’s VM0042 Improved Agricultural Land Management methodology, vary materially with compliance, carbon price, weighted average cost of capital, and revenue-sharing assumptions; these outputs are illustrative sensitivity calculations and do not demonstrate VM0042 compliance, project eligibility, project-registration readiness, verified emission reductions, or credit-issuance readiness. The findings are associational, reconstruction-dependent, and scenario-based. They support an analytical framework rather than establish a closed causal loop.