Limited influence of nest site vegetation on female wild turkey survival during incubation

Abstract

Resource quality in heterogeneous environments directly underlies individual fitness. Gallinaceous birds, such as female eastern wild turkeys ( Meleagris gallopavo silvestris ), face significant reproductive challenges, particularly predation risk associated with ground nesting. Ground vegetation provides concealment to incubating females but can also impede their ability to detect and escape predators; hence, females must balance the need for concealment with potential risks. We examined nest site selection relative to vegetative characteristics used by female wild turkeys to determine whether nest sites selected by females affected mortality risk during incubation. We monitored 1065 nests from 767 female wild turkeys between 2014 and 2023, documenting a 76% nest failure rate and a 24% mortality rate of females during incubation. Females selected nest sites characterized by lower tree density, increased ground cover, and greater visual obstruction relative to random locations. However, increasing ground cover was associated with lower daily survival during incubation. Daily survival during incubation for juveniles and adults was 0.99 (95% credible interval [CrI] = 0.992–0.999) and 0.99 (95% CrI = 0.993–0.999), respectively, which equated to an incubation survival rate of 0.90 (95% CrI = 0.789–0.964) for juveniles and 0.92 (95% CrI = 0.814–0.979) for adults. Together, these results indicate a trade‐off in nest site selection, whereby females select nest sites with greater ground cover despite lower survival. Future research should explore factors affecting female survival during incubation, including behavioral adaptations and vegetative and landscape conditions such as understory structure at multiple spatial scales, habitat configuration, and availability to escape cover to better understand the dynamics of nest site selection and resultant fitness outcomes.