Lifetime Risk of Cutaneous Melanoma in 185 Countries: Decomposing its Difference From Cumulative Risk into Methodological and Longevity Effects

This study calculated lifetime risks of developing and dying from cutaneous melanoma across 185 countries, finding global rates of 0.49% and 0.10% respectively, with substantial variation by development index and geographic region. By decomposing the difference between lifetime and cumulative risk, the analysis reveals that risk accruing beyond age 74 years (rather than methodological adjustments) accounts for over 40% of the lifetime risk gap, indicating that lifetime risk is substantially higher than conventional cumulative risk estimates in long-lived populations. These findings support using lifetime risk as a complementary metric to cumulative risk when comparing melanoma burden across populations with differing life expectancy.