Learning from failure by using a hybrid model technique: the Suez Canal incident

Abstract

This paper examines the grounding of the  Ever Given  in the Suez Canal using a hybrid analytical framework integrating Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), Reliability Block Diagram (RBD), and Bowtie Modelling enhanced by the Haddon Matrix. The framework identifies causal pathways leading to loss of navigational control and canal blockage while evaluating barriers for preventing and mitigating similar incidents. FTA structures the causal logic and defines basic events, which are mapped into an RBD to reveal system vulnerabilities and limited redundancy. The Bowtie model organises preventive and mitigative barriers across pre-event, event, and post-event phases, while the Haddon Matrix ensures balanced consideration of human, environmental, and equipment factors. The analysis identifies three dominant vulnerabilities: procedural non-compliance, reduced situational awareness under adverse weather, and navigational challenges in restricted waters. The study demonstrates that the hybrid framework provides a practical method for tracing causation, visualising vulnerabilities, and strengthening safety-barrier design in restricted-water operations.