Landscape Ecological Risk Evolution and Its Nonlinear Driving Mechanisms in a Topographically Constrained River-Valley Basin: A Case Study of the Taiyuan Section of the Fen River Basin

In regions where severe topographic constraints coincide with intensive human activity, the mechanisms underlying landscape ecological risk (LER) and its spatial differentiation remain poorly understood. In particular, the nonlinear responses and threshold effects arising from the combined influence of complex natural gradients, urban expansion, and policy interventions have not been adequately characterized, limiting effective regional ecological management and policy formulation. Taking the Taiyuan section of the Fen River Basin as the study area, this study constructed an LER index using land-use data for 2014, 2019, and 2024. Landscape metrics and spatial autocorrelation analyses were used to characterize the spatiotemporal evolution of LER, and a LightGBM-SHAP model with spatial block cross-validation was employed to identify the nonlinear effects of natural and socioeconomic drivers. A four-quadrant zoning framework integrating current risk state and driver sensitivity was then developed. The results showed that: (1) LER followed a fluctuating trajectory, rising from 2014 to 2019 and declining from 2019 to 2024, with evident spatial differentiation. Low- and relatively low-risk zones dominated about 71% of the area, while medium- to high-risk zones clustered mainly in the northeast, south, and parts of the northwest; high-risk agglomerations gradually contracted. (2) LER was driven by both natural and socioeconomic factors, with natural factors playing the stronger role. Slope, NDVI, elevation, and GDP were the key drivers. (3) The effects of these drivers were strongly nonlinear: slope increased risk at 5–13° but reduced it above 13°; NDVI displayed an inverted U-shaped relationship, with the strongest positive contribution at 0.60–0.75.; and elevation shifted from a positive to negative contribution near 1200 m. Based on these results, the framework coupling risk state and driver sensitivity delineated differentiated management units, providing fine-scale spatial guidance for ecological protection, restoration, and development control in topographically constrained river-valley basins.