Land-Use Carbon Balance Zoning Based on Ecological Support Capacity and Spatial Association Network: Evidence from Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei

Understanding land-use carbon emissions (LUCE) requires accounting for both spatial heterogeneity and intercity linkages, yet most studies treat cities as isolated units, overlooking network-level interactions and their implications for regional ecological support and functional zoning. Using the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei urban agglomeration as a case study, we estimated LUCE from 2005 to 2020 via the carbon emission coefficient method, constructed potential intercity association networks using a gravity model and social network analysis (SNA), and integrated ecological support capacity (ESC) with network structural roles to develop a two-dimensional carbon balance zoning framework. Results indicate that LUCE exhibited an overall increasing trend with a stable south-high and north-low spatial pattern. The association network remained connected and exhibited a persistent core–periphery structure, with Beijing and Tianjin occupying core positions and the network showing increasing concentration after 2010. ESC displayed an opposite spatial gradient to LUCE, indicating stronger ecological support in northern and northwestern cities and weaker support in central-southern areas. Integrating ESC and network structural roles identified four carbon balance functional zones. The integrated framework provides a basis for differentiated low-carbon land-use management and collaborative carbon governance in urban agglomerations.