Is urbanisation really the housing problem? Rethinking the links between migration, urban growth and affordability in Africa
Simon Ofori Ametepey, Kingsley Ofori, Clinton AigbavboaPurpose
Africa is experiencing substantial urban and demographic change, while housing affordability remains an important policy concern. This study examines whether urban population growth and net migration are associated with housing affordability and whether these relationships vary across regional contexts.
Design/methodology/approach
Using a balanced panel of 54 African countries covering 2014–2023, the study combines descriptive and correlation analysis with pooled regression and two-way fixed-effects models. The preferred specification controls for country and year effects and uses country-clustered standard errors. Additional analyses examine the interaction between migration and urban growth, regional heterogeneity, lagged predictors, winsorised data and an alternative housing outcome.
Findings
Pooled results show a negative association between urban population growth and the Urban Affordable Housing Index (UAHI), while net migration is not statistically significant. However, neither urban population growth nor net migration is statistically significant in the preferred two-way fixed-effects model after accounting for country and year effects. The interaction between migration and urban growth is also not statistically significant, providing no evidence that migration systematically changes their relationship with housing affordability. Regional analysis identifies significant heterogeneity in the migration relationship for North Africa, while most other regional differences are not statistically distinguishable. Robustness tests using lagged predictors, winsorised data and an alternative housing indicator provide broadly similar evidence.
Originality/value
This study provides pan-African panel evidence distinguishing cross-country relationships from within-country changes in housing affordability. It shows that demographic change alone provides a limited explanation of housing affordability variation once country-specific and year-specific factors are considered.