Iranian Crisis (December 2025 – March 2026) and its Impact on Central Asia

The article investigates main reasons and factors of the crisis in and around Islamic Republic of Iran in December 2025–March 2026, the current war against Iran started by the US and Israel, its political and economic outcomes and influence on Central Asia. In the complex international situation, being on the edge of the global catastrophe, there is no unified position on Iran’s future. The future new world order depends on the crisis outcome and interested powers’ strategies. Special attention is paid therefore to interaction and mutual influence of various factors in Iran’s development, including its ethno-national, historical, cultural, religious and economic development features. It is stated that the problem of survival and further consolidation of the Islamic regime after the war, in conditions of the continuing long-term mass discontent with the country management, will inevitably require acceleration and deepening of the transformation process, the ruling regime’s shift towards greater openness and secularism. In any case, CA countries face a multitude of economic and political problems with a negative potential impact on the current state and prospects of regional development. The selected methods include systemic strategic, constructivist, and economic approaches based on empirical data. The subject of analysis during the period under study, the latest data and theoretical approaches, multi-level approach define the article’s originality. The findings demonstrate that the Islamic regime is still fairly stable and capable of resisting internal and external opposition, transforming toward greater secularization. This does not remove the issue of growing regional and global challenges in Central Asia.