Investigating the Impact of Traffic Demand, Fleet Electrification, and Driving Behavior on Urban Vehicle Emissions Using a SUMO-Based Simulation

Urban transport emissions are a major contributor to climate change and urban air pollution. Although previous studies have demonstrated that traffic demand, fleet electrification, and driving behavior individually influence vehicular emissions, their combined effects under different congestion conditions remain insufficiently understood. This study investigates the interactions among these factors using the microscopic traffic simulator SUMO (Simulation of Urban MObility). A synthetic urban corridor consisting of five signalized intersections was developed to represent arterial roads in medium-sized cities. A full factorial experimental design was implemented by considering three traffic demand levels, three electric vehicle adoption percentage levels, and three driving behavior profiles, resulting in 27 experimental scenarios with 10 stochastic replications per scenario. Traffic performance and pollutant emissions were evaluated to quantify both the individual and interaction effects of the experimental factors. The results indicate that traffic demand is the primary determinant of CO2 and NOx emissions, while fleet electrification substantially reduces emissions, particularly under congested conditions. Driving behavior also plays a role by influencing acceleration and deceleration patterns. Furthermore, statistically significant interaction effects among the experimental factors (p<0.05) reveal the benefits of fleet electrification considering the traffic demand and the driving behavior. These findings contribute to the understanding of sustainable urban mobility by providing a comprehensive assessment of how traffic demand, fleet electrification, and driving behavior jointly influence urban traffic performance and vehicle emissions, offering valuable insights for the design of integrated transportation and environmental policies.