Interpretable Time-Series Forecasting of TBM Advance Rate in Mixed Ground: A Diagnostic Framework Based on Physical Memory

Mixed ground conditions cause sudden fluctuations in the tunnel boring machine (TBM) advance rate (AR). Accurate forecasting is necessary for tunneling safety. Existing data-driven models, however, often treat the excavation process as an isolated event. They ignore the physical memory effect of rock–machine interactions. They also lack the ability to diagnose abnormal AR drops. To address these issues, an interpretable forecasting framework is proposed. First, a Selection–Processing (SP) system is established to standardize data handling and quantify geological heterogeneity. Second, a Time-Series Structure (TSS) network is developed to construct a one-ring-ahead input block using the current completed-ring state and CCF/PACF-guided historical windows. The framework is validated on the Shenzhen–Dayawan Intercity Line. The optimized GWO-LSTM model achieves high accuracy (R2 = 0.977, MAE = 2.15, RMSE = 3.07). Compared with the no-TSS reference scheme, the MAE and RMSE decrease from 2.7081 and 3.6045 to 2.1496 and 3.0724, respectively. Furthermore, Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) are applied for ring-by-ring anomaly diagnosis. Local SHAP analysis indicates that both current-state variables and selected lagged variables provide diagnostic information for AR fluctuations. The identified lags are interpreted as project-specific memory indicators rather than universal physical delay constants. This method provides model-based diagnostic clues for associating sudden AR drops with specific operational or geological factors. The proposed framework provides a transparent and practical tool for TBM performance prediction and field diagnosis.