International drivers of political settlement change in Africa

Political settlement analysis, as a framework to understand power configurations, has been mainly concerned with domestic dynamics, as well as with the implications of settlements for development. While some scholars have acknowledged the role of international capital in shaping political settlements, international actors are often overlooked in this literature, with settlements primarily understood as domestic elite coalitions. By conceptualizing three mechanisms—material resources, ideational influence, and regime recognition—the paper examines how international actors impact settlement dynamics. We illustrate the empirical plausibility of these mechanisms by examining four cases of political settlement change across different African countries: Ghana (1982), Kenya (2008), Côte d’Ivoire (2011), and Tanzania (2016). These cases reveal that international actors might play a pivotal role in defining and stabilizing political settlements, providing critical resources and legitimacy to ruling coalitions.