Internal Determinants of Ethiopian Foreign Policy Decisions: The Case of the Memorandum of Understanding with Somaliland

The main objective of this study is to investigate how internal factors shaped Ethiopia’s foreign policy decision to sign a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Somaliland. The study employs a qualitative case study design, drawing on semi-structured interviews, document analysis and analysis of government speeches and other political statements. Guided by diversionary theory and the rational actor model, the study evaluates competing explanations for the MoU, including economic and security considerations, historical memory and national role conception. The findings indicate that Ethiopia’s pursuit of maritime access reflects a long-standing strategic objective rooted in economic and security concerns, historical identity and the political elite’s conception of Ethiopia’s regional role. However, these factors alone do not fully explain the timing and political framing of the MoU. The analysis suggests that domestic political pressures, including armed conflict, economic hardship and declining political legitimacy, shaped the decision. The study concludes that the MoU is best understood as the interaction between enduring strategic interests and short-term domestic political dynamics. The study contributes to foreign policy analysis by demonstrating how strategic interests, identity-based narratives and domestic political considerations jointly shape foreign policy decisions in fragile political contexts.