Intensifying Tropical Cyclones and Expanding Renewable Energy Call for Climate‐Resilient Planning in China

Abstract

Variable renewable energy (VRE) is central to power system decarbonization for climate mitigation, yet its rapid expansion places growing VRE infrastructure at risk from tropical cyclones (TCs). With TCs projected to intensify, such risks remain poorly quantified at policy‐relevant scales, potentially exposing power systems to unforeseen disruption and damage. Here, we develop a spatially resolved risk projection model by coupling a physics‐based TC hazard module with a power system optimization module to assess the impact of TC climatology change on VRE expansion in China. We find that the TC‐induced economic losses to VRE are projected to increase 10‐ to 20‐fold relative to a historical baseline (1975–2014) of 0.37 billion USD yr ⁻¹ by the late 21st century (2061–2100), with wind power accounting for 87%–91% of this increase. The decomposition analysis shows that exposure dominates (contributing 44%–49%) the increase in economic loss growth over 2021–2060, whereas hazard‐exposure interaction dominates (contributing 49%–67%) over 2061–2100. We further identify the optimal strengthening metric, which can offset 54%–67% of the projected economic losses. This framework shifts disaster‐risk assessment from reactive recovery to proactive infrastructure resilience planning, providing a scalable template for climate‐resilient coastal energy transitions worldwide.