Intelligent Early Warning System for Supplier Delays Using Dynamic IoT-Calibrated Probabilistic Modeling in Smart Engineer-to-Order Supply Chains

In increasingly complex Engineer-to-Order (EtO) supply chains, accurately predicting supplier delivery delays is essential for ensuring operational resilience. This study proposes an intelligent Internet of Things (IoT)-enhanced probabilistic framework for early warning and dynamic prediction of supplier lead times in smart manufacturing contexts. Within this framework, three novel Early Warning Systems (EWS) are introduced: the Baseline Probabilistic Alert System (BPAS) based on fixed thresholds, the Smart IoT-Calibrated Alert System (SIoT-CAS) leveraging IoT-driven calibration, and the Adaptive IoT-Driven Risk Alert System (AID-RAS) featuring real-time threshold adaptation. Supplier lead times are modeled using statistical distributions and dynamically adjusted with IoT data to capture evolving disruptions. A comprehensive Monte Carlo simulation was conducted across varying levels of lead time uncertainty (σ), alert sensitivity (Pthreshold), and delivery constraints (Lmax), generating over 1000 synthetic scenarios per configuration. The results highlight distinct trade-offs between predictive accuracy, sensitivity, and robustness: BPAS minimizes false alarms in stable environments, SIoT-CAS improves forecasting precision through IoT calibration, and AID-RAS maximizes detection capability and resilience under high-risk conditions. Overall, the findings advance theoretical understanding of adaptive, data-driven risk modeling in EtO supply chains and provide practical guidance for selecting appropriate EWS mechanisms based on operational priorities. Furthermore, they offer actionable insights for integrating predictive EWS into MES (Manufacturing Execution System) and digital control tower platforms, thereby contributing to both academic research and industrial best practices.