Integrating Economic Growth, Environmental Emissions and Labour Vulnerability for Circular Economy Supply Chain Resilience in India: An ARDL Approach

ABSTRACT

Study investigates long‐ and short‐term relationships among GDP, CO ₂ emissions, vulnerable employment and the real interest rate in India for circular economy supply chain resilience and to understand their economic, environmental and labour market connections. Using annual time‐series data from World Development Indicators (1991–2023), the study utilises unit root tests, AIC‐based lag selection, autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing and an error correction model, along with robustness checks. Results confirm a long‐run co‐integrating relationship. In the long term, GDP displays a significant negative adjustment effect. In the short term, CO ₂ emissions positively and significantly influence GDP, while vulnerable employment has a significant negative impact. The real interest rate is negative but not significant. Reducing vulnerable employment and promoting green investments can boost workforce productivity, supply‐chain resilience and progress towards SDG 13. Although limited to aggregate national data, the study provides novel integrated evidence linking labour vulnerability, environmental stress and macroeconomic performance in India.