Integrated Management of Spodoptera frugiperda in Africa: A Niche Overlap Modelling Approach at Scale

ABSTRACT

The fall armyworm ( Spodoptera frugiperda ) poses a significant threat to maize production across sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA), necessitating sustainable and effective integrated pest management (IPM) strategies. Among the existing IPM technologies, biological control and diversified cropping systems, particularly the use of Cotesia icipe (a larval endoparasitoid) and the push–pull cropping system, are among the most widely promoted approaches in SSA. However, their integration into large‐scale, practical pest management programmes remains underexplored and is still at a subsistence level. This calls for a fundamental change in these practices, with a specific focus on suitable areas and their widespread adoption across several maize‐growing regions in SSA. Additionally, there is a need for large‐scale, integrated IPM packages to ensure long‐term FAW management. This study employed ecological niche modelling and the Jaccard similarity index to identify regions across SSA where the suitability of C. icipe and push–pull companion plants overlap, thus providing a spatially informed framework for IPM implementation. Across Africa, the model proposes a pathway for identifying the locations that are ecologically suitable for FAW IPM interventions based on the use of C. icipe and push–pull cropping system. The results highlight key co‐suitable regions across several maize‐growing agroecological zones, including West Africa's coastal areas, large portions of Central Africa and significant areas in East Africa, particularly around Ethiopia and Kenya. Large suitable areas were also identified in Southern Africa, particularly in regions conducive to intensive agricultural practices. These findings provide a scalable decision‐support tool for targeting IPM interventions in zones with the highest ecological potential for success. By prioritizing interventions in these identified suitable areas, policymakers, stakeholders, researchers and extension services can improve the effectiveness of FAW management, enhance food security, crop protection and promote climate‐resilient agricultural development across vulnerable farming regions in SSA.