Integrated Flood Susceptibility and Multi-Temporal Flood Risk Prioritization in Pakistan Using Hydro-Climatic and Geospatial Indicators

Flood susceptibility in Pakistan is strongly influenced by hydro-climatic variability, land-surface conditions, topography, and recurrent floodplain exposure; however, national-scale studies often lack a comprehensive assessment that captures both spatial patterns and temporal flood-risk dynamics within a single framework. This study is one of Pakistan’s first national efforts to address the gap between flood risk assessment and prioritization through a unified geospatial assessment. This study assesses flood susceptibility across Pakistan for 2002, 2012, and 2022 using a GIS-based AHP approach by integrating climatic, environmental, topographic, hydrological, soil, LULC, and anthropogenic indicators. The study results were further analyzed through district-level assessments, risk change analysis, persistence mapping, LULC exposure assessments, and the Comprehensive Flood Risk Priority Index (FRPI). The results show that high and very high flood susceptibility zones are primarily concentrated along the Indus River corridor, lower floodplains, and coastal Sindh, accounting for more than 7% of the total land area of Pakistan. Persistent flood hotspots are identified in Rann of Kutch (66.6%), Jacobabad (65.0%), and Jafarabad (61.1%), indicating strong temporal stability of flood-prone conditions. LULC exposure analysis reveals that cropland is the dominant exposed class, with the highest district-level exposure observed in Badin (17.1%) and Larkana (10.1%). The FRPI further identifies priority flood-risk zones where susceptibility, persistence, risk change, and exposure converge, with the highest FRPI values observed in Jacobabad (0.742), Rann of Kutch (0.738), and Badin (0.711). Model validation demonstrates strong predictive performance, with susceptibility ROC-AUC values ranging from 0.85 to 0.87 and FRPI AUC reaching 0.85. The proposed framework provides a robust decision-support tool for targeted flood-risk management and climate-resilient land-use planning in Pakistan.