Integrated effects of climate change and land‐use/land‐cover dynamics on streamflow and sediment yield in the Teji Catchment, Ethiopia

Abstract

This study evaluates the combined effects of projected climate and land‐use/land‐cover (LULC) change on streamflow and sediment yield in the Teji Catchment, Ethiopia. The analysis covered historical and future periods from the 1980s to the 2060s, with the 1980s, 2000s, and 2020s representing the historical period. The 2040s and 2060s represent projected scenarios. Observed meteorological data from the Teji, Ginchi, and Kimoye stations characterize historical climate conditions. Climate projections were developed using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios. Historical LULC maps were derived from Landsat imagery, while future LULC patterns were predicted using the Modules for Land Use Change Simulation. We used soil and water assessment tool plus to simulate sediment yield and streamflow. The results showed that both rainfall and temperature are expected to rise, although the rainfall trends were not statistically significant. LULC analysis revealed an expansion of cultivated land and settlements at the expense of grassland, forest, and shrubland. Combined effects of climate and LULC changes are projected to increase both streamflow and sediment yield throughout the study period. Compared to the 1980s, daily streamflow is projected to increase by 27.3%, 28.3%, and 37.2%, and mean annual sediment yield by 29.6%, 31.7%, and 41.5% under SSP1‐1.9, SSP2‐4.5, and SSP5‐8.5, respectively, by the 2060s. These dynamics may increase sedimentation in the catchment, with potential implications for agricultural productivity and ecosystem functioning. Therefore, integrated catchment management and climate adaptation mechanisms need to be planned and implemented.