Intangible Resources in Rural Development Policy: From Empirical Models to a Scenario Design Methodology

This study develops and empirically validates a methodology for transitioning from the diagnosis of rural settlements’ resource profiles to evidence-based scenario selection in development policy. Based on a mixed-methods study of 12 rural settlements in Krasnodar Krai (Russia)—including a survey of 781 residents, expert interviews, focus groups, and statistical data from 2017–2023—we apply PCA, cluster analysis, and regression modelling with interaction effects. The analysis reveals a three-factor structure of intangible resources (institutional potential, social cohesion, and human capital) explaining 78.4% of variance, and reproduces four empirical development models (responsible, stagnant, fragmented, distant) consistent with the previously identified typology (Fisher’s exact test, p < 0.001). Regression modelling demonstrates a significant synergistic (multiplicative) effect of institutional potential and social cohesion (β4 = 0.324, p < 0.01), increasing explained variance by 17.2% over the additive model. We introduce a Multiplicativity Index for ranking settlements and construct a correspondence matrix linking resource profiles to six development scenarios with targeted management tools. The proposed methodology bridges the gap between diagnosis and design, offering a quantitative framework for differentiated strategic planning based on the synergy of local intangible assets. Given the small sample size (12 settlements), these findings should be regarded as preliminary and exploratory; their generalisability to other regions awaits further validation.