Institutional Lag and Maturity in Circular Economy Transition: A Comparative Analysis of China and Russia in the Context of SDG 12

The transition to a circular economy (CE) is central to achieving SDG 12, yet institutional transformation varies significantly across countries. This study conducts a comparative institutional analysis of CE transitions in China and Russia to quantify Russia’s institutional lag and assess the maturity of both systems in the context of SDG indicator 12.5.1 (Circular Material Use Rate—CMUR). Drawing on neo-institutional theory, multi-level governance, and institutional trap theory, we develop an original methodology that computes institutional lag through three key milestones, an integrated maturity index across eight institutional components, and CMUR estimates based on official statistics, legislative acts (1998–2025), and industry reports. Our results show that Russia’s average institutional lag relative to China is 15.3 years: Russia’s 2024 municipal solid waste recycling rate (13.9%) matched China’s 2009–2010 level, while China achieved Russia’s 25% target for 2030 in 2018. The integrated maturity index is 8.25 for China versus 5.25 for Russia, with the largest gaps in industrial symbiosis, R&D and human capital, and international integration. Russia’s CMUR stands at 5–7%, compared to 25–30% in China. We also demonstrate that Russia’s high recycling growth is driven by a low-base effect and is not evidence of institutional efficiency; the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of Russian recycling volume (33.0%) significantly exceeds China’s (13.1%), but this reflects the much lower starting point rather than systemic maturity. We conclude that without systemic institutional reforms—including eco-industrial parks, green finance, and competence centres—Russia will remain at an early CE stage, failing to substantially contribute to SDG 12 by 2030.