Institutional Evaluation in Higher Education: A System Dynamics Framework of Multiple Evaluation Logics and Sustainable Institutional Capacity

Institutional evaluation in higher education is increasingly shaped by multiple, coexisting systems, including research assessment, university rankings, accreditation and quality assurance, and responsible research assessment. Although these systems are widely examined individually, their dynamic interactions and cumulative institutional effects remain insufficiently understood. This study develops a conceptual System Dynamics framework and introduces Sustainable Institutional Capacity (SIC) as a central theoretical construct for explaining how institutions respond to multiple evaluation demands over time. Drawing on institutional logics, organizational response, research evaluation, quality assurance, and System Dynamics perspectives, the framework integrates four evaluation subsystems: research prestige, competitive ranking, accreditation and quality assurance, and responsible assessment. Their interaction generates cross-system feedback mechanisms involving evaluation internalization, reputation and resource attraction, capability development, internationalization, strategic alignment, diversification, and organizational sustainability. SIC is defined as the level of evaluation-oriented activity that an institution can sustain without excessive organizational strain, quality deterioration, mission displacement, or capability erosion. By linking evaluation pressures to endogenous feedback and capacity constraints, the framework explains how initially beneficial evaluation-driven strategies may produce growth, adaptation, stabilization, oscillation, overextension, or collapse as feedback dominance changes over time. The framework provides a theoretical basis for empirical validation and subsequent stock-and-flow simulation of institutional evaluation dynamics.