Infrastructure‐Constrained Pathways for Large‐Scale CO ₂ Mitigation via CCUS in China's Coal‐Fired Power Sector

ABSTRACT

Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) is essential for decarbonizing coal‐dominated power systems, yet its large‐scale deployment in China is constrained by high costs, uneven storage resources, and limited transport infrastructure. This study develops a plant‐level, region‐resolved multi‐objective optimization framework for CCUS deployment in China's coal‐fired power sector, integrating plant‐level capture choices, CO ₂ transport, utilization, geological storage, policy incentives, and energy‐security considerations. Using data from 808 coal‐fired power plants, the Non‐dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA‐II) is applied to identify Pareto‐optimal pathways that balance total system cost, net CO ₂ mitigation, and a composite energy security index. Results show that the Pareto frontier spans 378–693 billion CNY in total system costs and 1.27–1.81 Gt CO ₂ yr ⁻¹ in annual net mitigation. Policy incentives exhibit a saturation effect: carbon prices above 50 CNY t ⁻¹ CO ₂ and subsidies exceeding 30% yield diminishing marginal returns once transport and storage constraints become binding. Diversified capture portfolios increase the energy security index by approximately 25% at only 3%–5% additional cost, while inter‐regional source–sink coordination reduces total system costs by 15%–22%. These findings support coordinated infrastructure planning and balanced policy design for China's coal‐power CCUS deployment.