Influence of Battery Life Degradation on PV Battery Capacity Configuration in Urban Industrial Park in Shanghai

Urban industrial parks have high electricity demand, and rooftop photovoltaic (PV)-battery systems can help reduce grid dependence and carbon emissions. However, battery degradation affects battery replacement timing and long-term economic performance, which should be considered in capacity sizing. This study proposes a degradation-aware techno-economic sizing method for rooftop PV-battery systems in urban industrial parks. GIS-based rooftop assessment, EnergyPlus load modeling, TRNSYS system simulation, battery SOH tracking, and NPV evaluation were integrated into one framework. A case study was conducted for an urban industrial park in Shanghai, China. The usable rooftop area was estimated as 113,208 m2, corresponding to a PV capacity of approximately 18,765 kWp. The annual PV generation was 24.7 GWh, accounting for 24.7% of the park’s annual electricity demand. Battery capacities from 5000 to 40,000 kWh were evaluated. The results show that increasing battery capacity improves load shifting and reduces direct grid supply, but the marginal benefit gradually decreases. The maximum NPV is obtained at 30,000 kWh, with an NPV of 128.36 million CNY, a simple payback period of 4.6 years, and a discounted payback period of 6.0 years. The rooftop PV system achieves a 25-year CO2 emission reduction of approximately 335,967 tCO2 after considering PV degradation. Sensitivity analyses show that BES cost, tariff spread, and discount rate are key factors affecting the recommended capacity.