Indian Nuclearization of the Indian Ocean Region and its Implications for the Strategic Stability of South Asia

This paper examines the Indian naval nuclear modernization through the lens of offensive realism. The scholarship argues that India’s naval nuclearization is driven less by its defense necessity than by its ambitions to be a regional hegemon in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). The existing literature discusses various reasons behind India’s pursuit of naval nuclear platforms, including deterrence stability based on Cold War logic that strengthening the second-strike capability discourages the first strike, prestige motives, and bureaucratic rationales. However, this paper posits that the driving reason behind Indian naval nuclearization is its ambition to be a regional hegemon in the IOR. Using qualitative methods and thematic analysis of official documents, strategic discourses, and secondary literature, the paper identifies three recurring patterns in India’s maritime behavior: capability expansion beyond stated minimalism, doctrinal shift towards regional dominance, and regional security rooted in the narrative of a net security provider. It argues that the Indian development of SSBNs, SSNs, and SLBMs, coupled with its LSAs with extra-regional powers, undermines strategic stability in South Asia. The paper finds that India’s growing naval nuclearization increases crisis instability and fuels an arms race in the region. It further observes that Indian naval nuclear posture increases the risk of inadvertent escalation and could transform the region into a theatre of the global Great Game. The paper concludes that Pakistan must devise long- and short-term strategies to restore the balance of power in the region in the evolving maritime strategic environment.