Implementation Gap in Global Power Capacity Expansion to meet Paris Agreement Climate Targets

Abstract

Meeting the Paris Agreement’s climate targets demands an unprecedented expansion of renewable energy. Despite global commitments, significant implementation gaps persist due to economic, policy, and technical uncertainties. Here, we develop a Global Power Capacity Dynamics Framework, integrating facility-level data, machine learning and transition modeling to assess the feasibility of global power expansion. Analyzing 215,849 power plant units across five status modes (operating, planned, canceled, standby, retired), the framework explicitly incorporates the likelihood of planned capacity realization and the conversion of existing fossil assets. We find that by 2030, only 51% [40%–61%] of announced planned capacity is expected to become operational, while 26% [19%–36%] is likely to be canceled, with fossil fuel projects, especially coal, facing a cancellation rate of about 35%. Global operational capacity is projected to reach 9727 GW [9626–9848], including 178 GW [159–198] of existing fossil units requiring conversion or replacement (e.g., coal-to-gas, fossil-to-biomass). Although renewables dominate the planned pipeline, they are projected to constitute only 52% of the global energy mix by 2030, well below levels needed to meet climate goals. Regional disparities are pronounced: Asia, despite its relatively low cancellation rate, faces the world’s largest implementation gap, requiring an additional 2488 GW of solar and contending with 523 GW of stranded coal capacity to remain on a 1.5 °C pathway. This study provides the first probabilistic, facility-level assessment of global power capacity trajectories, revealing critical shortfalls in planned deployment and underscoring the urgency of aligning capacity expansion with climate targets.