Impacts of Land Use Change on Ecosystem Service Provision Capacity in the Upper Rio Pardo Basin, Minas Gerais, Brazil

Land-use and land-cover (LULC) change is a major driver of ecosystem degradation and ecosystem service loss in tropical landscapes. This study assessed the impacts of LULC changes between 1985 and 2023 on the potential of different LULC classes to supply ecosystem services in the Upper Rio Pardo Basin (Rio Pardo and Rio São João do Paraíso watersheds), northern Minas Gerais, Brazil. LULC data from the MapBiomas Project were used to quantify transitions among LULC classes within the study area. The potential supply of ecosystem services was assessed using the Burkhard matrix, adapted to local environmental conditions and informed by expert knowledge, while the relative importance of ecosystem services was evaluated through a participatory assessment involving local communities. The expansion of pasturelands and commercial forest plantations was identified as the primary driver of ecosystem service loss in the study region. Native ecosystems showed the highest potential to provide regulating, supporting, provisioning, and cultural ecosystem services, particularly water regulation, soil protection, carbon sequestration, and biodiversity conservation. In contrast, anthropogenic land uses were primarily associated with provisioning services and showed limited capacity to sustain regulating and supporting services, indicating clear trade-offs between production and ecosystem functioning. Local communities identified water-related services as the highest priority, followed by climate regulation, soil fertility, and food provision. These findings demonstrate the value of integrating expert-based and participatory approaches to ecosystem service assessment and provide a basis for territorial planning strategies that prioritize the conservation and restoration of native vegetation, particularly in hydrologically sensitive areas.