Impacts of Land Use and Land Cover Change on Ecosystem Service Value in Hebei Province: A Spatiotemporal Analysis and Multi-Scenario Simulation for 2000–2030

Against the backdrop of coordinated development in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region, Hebei Province serves as an ecological safety barrier for the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei urban agglomeration. Conducting research on land use and land cover change (LUCC) and ecosystem service value (ESV) holds significant theoretical and practical value for elucidating the mechanisms underlying ESV evolution under the combined effects of rapid urbanization and major ecological engineering projects, and for applying these findings to regional land-use planning and ecological conservation and restoration efforts. This research aligns with the United Nations Decade on Ecosystem Restoration (2020–2030). Based on land-use data from 2000, 2010, and 2020, along with 11 categories of natural and socio-economic drivers, this study systematically analyses regional LUCC and calculates ESV using locally adjusted equivalence factors. It examines the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of ESV through the analysis of local spatial autocorrelation indices (LISAs), centroid, and standard deviation ellipses, and employs a GeoDetector to measure ESV drivers. Three scenarios—a natural evolution scenario (NES), economic development scenario (EDS), and ecological protection scenario (EPS)—were established. The patch-generating Land use simulation (PLUS) model was employed to simulate LUCC for 2030 (Kappa = 0.840) and calculate ESV. Results show that from 2000 to 2020, forest land and impervious surfaces in Hebei Province continued to expand, while cropland and grassland decreased. The cumulative ESV increased by 4.85 billion yuan. Slope was the primary driver of spatial variation in ESV, and the interaction between natural and socioeconomic factors demonstrated significantly stronger explanatory power. In 2030, the total ESV under all three scenarios was lower than in 2020. The EPS reached an ESV of 344.72 billion yuan, representing a relatively suitable model that balances development and conservation.