Impacts of Ground Deformation on Annual Vegetation Carbon Sequestration in an Underground Mining Area Based on Scenario Simulation via a CA Model

Impacts of mining-induced ground deformation on annual vegetation carbon sequestration have seldom been detected considering long-term plant succession after subsidence. To address this, a subsidence in the semi-arid underground mine of China was selected, and dynamics of annual vegetation carbon sequestration under deformation and baseline scenarios were simulated via a developed plant community succession model based on cellular automata. Results showed that ground deformation constrained tree growth, leading to a gradual transition from the original arbor forest to mixed forest under the deformation scenario. Annual vegetation carbon sequestration increased under both the deformation and baseline scenarios, but remained consistently lower under the deformation scenario. Moreover, the difference in annual vegetation carbon sequestration between the two scenarios gradually increased with spontaneous succession, from 30.56 Mg C yr−1 after 5 years to 44.53 Mg C yr−1 after 30 years. Compared with the baseline scenario, the annual vegetation carbon sequestration under the deformation scenario in the study area decreased by 6.59% to 67.36%, and showed the highest decrease (56.85–67.36%) in the area with 1–2 m’ subsidence. With the increase in succession years, the decline degree of the annual vegetation carbon sequestration in the deeper subsidence area decreased, while that in the shallower subsidence area gradually increased. In general, ground deformation affects the natural growth and community succession of vegetation, leading to the gradual degradation of tree vegetation and the decline in annual vegetation carbon sequestration. This study provides a method for quantifying impacts of ground deformation on the annual vegetation carbon sequestration, and provides theoretical guidance for the construction of green mining under the “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals”.