Impact of the Coupling and Coordinated Development of National and Global Value Chains on Green Development: Evidence from China’s Manufacturing Industry

Against the backdrop of China’s new development paradigm, this study examines how the coupling coordination between the national value chain (NVC) and the global value chain (GVC) affects regional green development and the mechanisms through which it does so. Focusing on China’s manufacturing sector, we employ a coupling coordination model, a high-dimensional fixed effects estimator, two-stage least squares, and bootstrap mediation tests on pooled cross-sectional data covering 31 provincial-level administrative units. The results indicate that greater NVC–GVC coupling coordination exerts a significant and positive effect on green development. Three transmission mechanisms are identified. First, NVC participation, environmental protection investment, and industrial structure upgrading jointly promote green development through a resource allocation and scale effect channel (NVC-led channel). Second, GVC participation operates through a green knowledge spillover and learning paths channel, which on net suppresses green development. Third, GVC participation also operates through an environmental regulations and standards transmission channel, which on net suppresses green development. The aggregate effect is nonetheless positive. Across the 2012, 2015, and 2017 sample years, the resource allocation and scale effect mechanism mediated by NVC participation dominates the knowledge spillover and regulatory transmission mechanism mediated by GVC participation, yielding a significant net stimulus to regional green development.