Impact of an Updated Climate Database on Model Performance and Niche Variability in Species Distribution Modeling

ABSTRACT

Despite the continuous accrual of occurrence data, the climate datasets used in species distribution modeling (SDM), particularly in mechanistic frameworks such as CLIMEX, often remain based on outdated climate baselines. Here, we present an updated global climate database (1992–2021) and corresponding bioclimatic variables, specifically structured for CLIMEX compatibility while also supporting application across multiple SDM frameworks. By providing a temporally updated climate baseline and enhancing cross‐framework usability, this resource addresses a key barrier to the integration of contemporary climate data into applied ecological modeling. To evaluate its utility, we developed CLIMEX and MaxEnt models for three species and compared model performance, predicted distributions, and niche similarity between the traditional 1961–1990 baseline and the updated 1992–2021 climate data. While overall model performance and broad niche overlaps remained similar between the two periods, localized habitat suitability and occurrence probabilities exhibited noteworthy variability. These results highlight the importance of temporally synchronized climate and occurrence data for reducing predictive uncertainty and accurately assessing climate impacts on species distributions. We provide the updated climate database and associated processing workflows through an open‐access repository. By facilitating the use of contemporary climate data across both mechanistic and correlative SDM approaches, this resource supports reliable pest risk analyses, targeted surveillance, and evidence‐based biosecurity decision‐making under current environmental conditions.