Impact Analysis of Agricultural Insurance Development on Ecological Efficiency of Grain Production from a Carbon Emission Reduction Perspective

The ecological efficiency of grain production has attracted growing scholarly interest in recent decades. Agricultural insurance alleviates operational risks embedded in grain cultivation, which further promotes improvements in ecological efficiency. Using provincial panel data covering 31 provincial-level administrative regions of China over the period 2001–2021, this study adopts the super-efficiency SBM model to quantify and analyze agricultural insurance development as well as the ecological efficiency of grain production nationwide. The empirical results yield three core conclusions: (1) The advancement of agricultural insurance significantly raises grain production ecological efficiency. (2) Carbon emission intensity exerts a significantly negative impact on ecological efficiency, demonstrating that carbon abatement policies are effective in boosting the green performance of grain production. (3) Carbon emission intensity exerts a statistically significant positive moderating effect. Specifically, the efficiency-improving effect of agricultural insurance on grain production eco-efficiency is more pronounced in regions with high carbon emission intensity. Based on the empirical findings, differentiated premium subsidy schemes for agricultural insurance should be formulated to promote grain production ecological performance. Policymakers are advised to introduce targeted ecological protection policies tailored to regional heterogeneous characteristics, and to advance coordinated linkage between agricultural insurance instruments and carbon reduction regulations.