Imagined Majorities: Perceived Group Size and Population Replacement Beliefs in Turkey

ABSTRACT

Population‐replacement beliefs are often treated as an intensified form of demographic misperception. This article instead argues that they comprise three distinct layers: perceptions of the current migrant population size, expectations of future growth and the attribution of deliberate political agency. Using an original nationally representative survey in Turkey ( N  = 1136), we test whether these layers form a single attitude or operate independently. Respondents overestimate the migrant population and expect further growth, yet current misperception does not independently predict belief in deliberate replacement. Projected growth is more strongly associated with replacement belief, while partisanship structures the attribution of hostile intent. Overestimation is concentrated among far‐right voters, whereas replacement belief extends more broadly across opposition constituencies. Socio‐demographic effects are weaker and less consistent. The findings show that replacement belief is not simply a mistaken assessment of present demography. It is a future‐oriented political interpretation that links anticipated group change to intentional agency. By demonstrating this layered structure in a majority‐Muslim refugee host, the article also shows that replacement belief is not confined to Western white‐majority settings.