Identifying and Assessing Road Infrastructure Development Potential Considering Land-Use Uncertainty: An Example of Developing Highways in Canton Zürich, Switzerland

Abstract

This paper presents a scenario planning methodology for identifying and assessing suitable road infrastructure development considering land-use uncertainty during early planning stages. This can be challenging due to divergent stakeholder views, uncertain assumptions about the future, and the time-consuming, iterative process of consensus building. The methodology comprises three steps: (1) generate multiple infrastructure changes, (2) generate multiple future scenarios, and (3) assess each change in each scenario, based on the factors considered relevant by society. The mobility demand is dependent on the land-use scenario and is dynamically allocated to the highway, based on proposed changes to the infrastructure and their impact on the accessibility of the spatially distributed population. The generated infrastructure development is then assessed using factors considered relevant by society, such as construction costs, travel time delay, noise externalities, and environmental emissions. The methodology is shown for a case study example of highway development in the Dübendorf–Hinwil corridor. This is achieved by using variant generations to scan a region for possible development, provide a transparent prioritization of generated variants, and offer an intuitive approach to synchronizing the planning of land use and transport in the early planning stages, which face a high degree of uncertainty. The methodology is expected to enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of road infrastructure planning, making the planning process more responsive to evolving societal needs.