Identification and Governance Strategy of Urban Systemic Risk Induced by Extreme Rain–Snow–Ice Weather in Southern China

ABSTRACT

China's rapid urbanization has expanded urban spatial scale and increased the concentration of population, wealth, and infrastructure. Against the background of climate change, urban systemic risk induced by extreme rain–snow–ice weather (USR–RSI) in southern China has repeatedly disrupted critical infrastructure and public services, generating cascading impacts across interconnected urban systems. This study examines the generation and evolution of USR–RSI and develops a corresponding resilience governance strategy. Building on conceptual analysis, complex network theory and system vulnerability theory are integrated to construct the theoretical framework. A causal loop diagram is used to characterize risk diffusion and feedback mechanisms based on the 2008 and 2024 RSI disaster cases. Semi‐structured interviews and documentary materials are further analyzed using a structured data analysis approach to identify sensitivity and adaptive factors associated with node and path vulnerability. On the basis of these findings, a whole‐process resilience governance framework is proposed, covering resilience construction, integration of warning and response, rapid recovery, and long‐term adaptive optimization and transformative reconfiguration. The study provides an empirical and analytical basis for understanding and governing USR–RSI from the perspective of interconnected urban socio‐technical systems.