Hydrologic connectivity amplifies riverine N 2 O emission hot spots and hot moments across the contiguous United States
Minpeng Hu, Zhongjie Yu, Timothy J. Griffis, Kelly Aho, Yucang Wang, Jie Yang, Wendy H. Yang, Carl J. Bernacchi, Justin M. McGrath, Randy A. Dahlgren, Hanqin Tian, John M. BakerRiverine nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions constitute a significant yet uncertain component of global greenhouse gas budgets. Integrating approximately 3,600 observations across the contiguous United States (CONUS), we present a monthly resolved, national-scale estimate of riverine N 2 O emissions (60.7 Gg N 2 O-N y −1 ; 95% CI: 41.9 to 71.2) using a machine-learning framework. Our analysis reveals that enhanced hydrologic connectivity strongly regulates nitrogen and N 2 O delivery to streams, driving emission hot moments during high-flow periods, especially in nutrient-rich low-order streams. The Midwest Corn Belt is identified as a major emission hot spot, where seasonal increases in connectivity (e.g., late-winter thaws and postharvest rainfall) amplify riverine emissions relative to direct soil emissions. Our watershed-specific EF 5r (0.0005 to 0.029) exceeds the IPCC default (0.0026) by more than twofold on average and up to 10-fold in intensively managed watersheds. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating hydrologic connectivity and nitrogen transport into climate models and watershed nitrogen management strategies.