How Universities Build Digital Entrepreneurial Intention in Fragile Contexts: The Roles of Institutional Digital Transformation, Entrepreneurial Knowledge, and Digital Mindset

In fragile economies where formal employment is constrained and conventional entrepreneurial pathways are structurally limited, universities represent one of the few institutional actors capable of cultivating digital entrepreneurial intention at scale and contributing to local economic resilience and sustainable development. Yet the mechanisms through which digital entrepreneurship education is associated with intention remain inadequately understood, particularly the institutional and cognitive pathways that education activates. Grounded in the Theory of Planned Behavior, Social Cognitive Theory, Digital Transformation Theory, and Human Capital Theory, this study proposes and tests a moderated serial mediation model in which perceived university digital transformation and digital entrepreneurial knowledge sequentially mediate the education-to-intention relationship, with digital mindset moderating the knowledge-to-intention path. Survey data from 344 Palestinian university students were analyzed using partial least squares structural equation modeling. All nine hypotheses are supported and the model accounts for 77.0% of the variance in digital entrepreneurial intention, a result that should be interpreted with caution given the single-source cross-sectional design. The indirect association of digital entrepreneurship education with intention through perceived university digital transformation is comparable in magnitude to the direct effect, indicating that the university’s institutional digital environment carries approximately as much of education’s influence on entrepreneurial intention as the direct attitudinal channel. The serial indirect path through both mediators is significant, confirming that institutional digital transformation and entrepreneurial knowledge are associated with intention in sequence rather than in parallel. Digital mindset significantly strengthens the knowledge-to-intention association, constituting a dispositional boundary condition. The findings advance understanding of how universities build digital entrepreneurial capacity in fragile contexts and carry implications for institutional digital investment, curriculum design, and higher education policy in resource-constrained settings aligned with SDG 8 and SDG 9.