How to Manage Invasive Hovenia dulcis Trees in Native Forests? A Case Study on Rural Properties in South Brazil

Sustainable management of the invasive tree Hovenia dulcis (H. dulcis) in the Mixed Ombrophilous Forest (MOF) is crucial for reconciling biodiversity conservation with income generation for smallholders. This study developed a species-specific predictive growth model for H. dulcis and simulated management scenarios across three properties with contrasting invasion intensities. By integrating stem quality, phytosanitary status, and individual growth rates into tree selection criteria, we evaluated trade-offs between timber yield and structural recovery under Continuous Cover Forestry (CCF) principles. The mixed-effects growth model demonstrated high predictive performance (marginal R2 = 0.89, RMSE = 2.05 cm), confirming H1 and validating its application as a decision-support tool for long-term silvicultural planning. Results confirmed H2: no single standardized management approach proved appropriate across all sites, as invasion intensity, stand density, and diameter distribution varied substantially among properties and directly determined the most suitable harvesting strategy. In highly invaded stands (Property I), intensive harvesting of 61 trees yielded the highest commercial volume (Vc = 21.84 m3), while in more preserved forests (Property II), conservative selection of 26 trees (Vc = 9.53 m3) prioritized structural quality. Structural recovery periods ranged from 1 to 7 years depending on harvesting intensity, with removal of stagnant large-diameter trees reducing passage time for remaining individuals. Targeting sawlog-quality trees (dbh > 25 cm) was 3.35 times more profitable than firewood production, providing a significant economic incentive for smallholders. These findings demonstrate that property-specific H. dulcis management can transform a biological threat into a productive resource, fostering MOF restoration through active and sustainable use.